The Week Ahead in Economics
Mark Carney has another interest rate decision to make on Thursday, but nobody expects another rate hike just yet.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised rates from 0.5pc to 0.75pc a month ago, the first rise to above 0.5pc since the financial crisis struck.
“Gradual and limited” are the Governor’s favourite words, so another increase is not anticipated until next year.
July’s GDP data today should be more upbeat. On the Office for National Statistics’ new monthly measure, growth is expected to tick up. It could take the rolling three-month GDP growth number up to 0.5pc, from 0.4pc in the second quarter.
Trade is not expected to be a big contributor, though, as the boost from the weak pound looks to have run its course.
Tomorrow’s jobs numbers are set to show unemployment held at a record low of 4pc.
It is not all fantastic news, however, as pay growth is struggling to take off and may come in below June’s 2.5pc inflation figure, meaning real wages are shrinking once more.